NIFTY
"Tea" is popular beverage/drink across the globe. There were "Tea" leaves that one could infer the market dynamics, then there are tea parties.
There as a proposal in the US to add salt to the tea. The new and controversial book Steeped: The Chemistry of Tea. In this book the author prescribes adding bit of salt to the cup of tea to reduce the bitterness.
So much so, it landed in the US Embassy in London to issue a statement to condemn and highlight the spirt of tea that unite the nations.
"Tea" is also the important symbol of India, the developments in one of the largest states in terms of political, surely adds a bit of salt in the tea, to reduce the bitterness. One has to wait and see the Outreach.
US data continues to print reasonable amount of confidence, Personal Spending continues to keep elevated. Amex Share hits record high. The expectation of March cuts continues to recede. Historically the first cut after the last rise comes around 8 months and the Jan meeting is the eight month. There are no expectations of any cut in this weeks first FOMC meeting. However, one wood like to see the tone and the path.
With Red Sea Woes, Drone Attack in Jordon, Iran statements that it is ready for any resolve, too early in the Monday morning to foresee what is in store. Asia is mixed. Gift Nifty is roaring post the news of LIC approval to buy HDFC Bank upto 9.99%. It would be show of BANKNIFTY that too in HDFC Bank.
From the Nifty, the Jan series ends in red, ditto in 2023 too but we ended the year in very bullish note. Hence, that is of little significance. Today ITC results big one to watch. HDFCBANK another one to watch. Geopolitical to keep a tab.
The 21830 remains a line of negation for any bear phase, while 21280 is the bull hope. When squeezed we get 21380-21730 range. Prefer to wait and see how the markets unfold the long weekend energy that is in store to unleash. Till then a bit of bitterness demands bit of salt. Or is it a Dash of Sugar to the "Tea" pot of Treasure. In either case, let the pot get little warm before we take the "SIP"
NIFTYBANK
Everyone waits for the weekend, while traders wait for the weekday's such is the expectation of the market participants after the approval from the regulator to allow LIC to buy up to 9.99% within the next one year.
Read the thread on HDFC bank the twitter handle.
HDFC Bank is systematically important bank, hence this measure tells a) existence of an issue b) concerns of further sales c) to restrict any systemic risks. The last that is systemic risk are not a clear indicator as currently markets remain well monitored and managed. Naturally the first two gains more weightage than the last one. Everybody loves, "HDFC" one has to wait and see what exactly that means in the unfolding context.
On the data points, US data remains reasonably robust, Asia inflation this morning from Singapore and Vietnam on the decent, while China continues to support through liquidity. Evergrande is dun and dusted, markets don't react to the similar news twice.
For start the HDFC bank will set huge gap up, this will aid the PSU pack to further scale up and stay higher than the HDFC bank. The clear divergence is all to see.
On the Index larger range is 44600-46600. While the shorter range 45800 caps. One has to wait and see how the event driven week unfolds. We have FOMC, then the budget on 1st. The liquidity is tightening as the incremental gap between asset and liabilities growth continue to be restrictive. Also keep a tab on the Geo-political.
On the HDFC, any move past 1520 it would be clear chance for those who are looking to exit than otherwise. It would take multiyear, for this space to break out and give the expected returns.
On the Index 44700-45700 ideally to work, minor slippages on the upside are not ruled out.