NIFTY
UN Chief terms current geo-political landscape as age of "Chaos"
There appears to be an end to the Israeli Cease Fire, both claiming victories. Interesting to watch Tuskar Interview with Putin.
While one can easily admit a mini-Chaos if not major one, this part is relevant even in financial markets.
While the world is fighting for inflation to bring down to 2%, the East majorly Japan and now China fighting to bring inflation to 2%. This morning China inflation YoY prints -0.8%. That is absolutely no power to purchase. Remember optimism feeds optimism and pessimism feeds pessimism.
What else can be a good example than the #nvidia stock, the market cap moved 180 times in the recent past. Despite the allegations of round tripping its own numbers it is still on the scandent.
The volatility in our markets continue, #nifty50 is not indicator at all. Internals remain of profit taking at higher levels, rotation continues with much more frequency than one can anticipate and approach.
Something needs to give, or we will rock along in this approach for some more time.
China markets print higher for the third consecutive day. The question that needs to be answered will some money move to China from here. FII continue to sell mode. The PIP graph shows the relative performance. In that sense looks we are relatively price action down. Mark the word relative.
From our perspective bull safe above 21500 while bears have loosened their grips and need min close below 21730 that is far off. Price action appears corrective and hence opens scope towards the UBB than lower.
Bigger range 21500-22500, within this 21730-22130 range.
NIFTYBANK
Very rarely markets looked for our policy action, it is more less well telegraphed and expected.
Today's one appears to be not in that category. We had two VRR the other-day, excess liquidity? Then there are statements from Banking Secretary, that PSU Banks are losing fast the CASA. Blame the quick gain equity markets?
Markets have in many counters becoming, show a finger, it flies CONUNDRUM.
It boils down that would be the priority of the Central Bank. Surely the exchange rate is not in their minds. That is well managed on a daily basis.
The asset liability grows and gap continues to be huge gap. Governments Fiscal deficit in the recent budget is optimistically lower. There is responsibility to hold the rates and facilitate the Government borrowing at the projected path, while ensuring the banking is not facing the higher cost of funds. Second one is tougher than the first one.
In addition, concerns on unsecured finance, credit card spends, surveillance in banking might be some other concerns. Recent Digital banking and fintech will there be any reference.
While more than the pause, the press conference gets more mileage, markets will look for the tone and tenor. It is once again, what is not said than what is said.
Please note it is not the news, but the reaction to the news that moves the markets.
From TA point of you, it is on the mark whether bulls or bears. The attached graph is bi-monthly. Two more days left though.
A close above 46300 bulls muster the strength, while close below 45300 bears sneak in.