NIFTY
As the calendar year enters Equinox, the day of equal, and the Sun moves into Aries, bulls knock the door and rise. The question is beyond the seasonality, is it the hopes of the new year that is being celebrated in many places. The fact that markets went extreme bearishness itself is the cause and effect of near-term bullishness. If the markets where there appears to be crisis are performing better, why Asia was lagging. Or is it one more time bull going to be trapped now that we have all the Central Bank's meeting. Australia Central Bank Paused. Read Bank nifty for more details. From the technical point of view, if the NIFTYBANK is not bearish it is difficult for NIFTY to move down. We are one such time, that calls for focus to the upside than downside. Close is tad below the recent intra-day high around 17150. The Candles are like bullish separating candle, the absence of lower wick would have done better to flag. Nevertheless, the bias is to the upside, unless Europe stamps the hopes. Global indexes all closed near very strong supply zone and that could be caution for the bulls if they have to carry overnight longs. Support 17070-17040 to hold while direct move past 17150 brings short covering potentially toward the 17250-280 being February low.
NIFTYBANK
The Financial Crisis, that hit the markets, so far to the disbelief of many remained calms. Infact, one of the renowned economists called this as lunatic rally and why not FED consider 50 bps hike later in the day. That chatter is growing. 25 on the table, 50 is just a chatter. This hiking cycle is second longest post the 1977-1980 cycle where they rates have crossed the inflation level before it could cool down. The difference between these two, then the real economic growth was positive. While 2022 is year of hiking, 2023 year of lag as many parts of the markets celebrate new year. The effects of 2022 will be slowly and surely felt in 2023. The euphoria of Crypto market led moves, will remain short lived at best market to move in pause mode than a vertical move up. Near term, we printed inverse head and shoulder, and it took lot of time yesterday to unfold and finally closed very strong. It has potential to move towards the 40600 while we stay above the 39600-550 and that become the new support for move towards 40400-600. This space was the lone support in NIFTY rally, supported by Energy index (lone driver being RIL). Stay on the long side.