DOW DAX UK100 NIFTY
NIFTY
March 23 is celebrated as Internation Bear Day, Moon bears, sun bears, spectacled bear. Bear is considered as Strength and Wisdom. Never witnessed the kind of volatility post the FOMC announcement. The bond market moved one of the craziest in century. The up and downs were almost positive 200 to negative 200, before finally giving back to bears. The word not all deposits would be insured did the trick. Dow prints outside day bar, DAX bearish engulfing. Asia is relatively calm. This pushes how our markets are going to close today. A close below 17050-80 area prints evening star at important area. (The area is marked 50% of the fall below the 200 DMA). A close even if it is minor green would send sanity to the bulls, short covering to the bears. The short-term frames are not suggesting big cuts either and hence clues from Europe would be additional point to consider. With expiry on, the action is expected to be measured than a one-way street.
NIFTYBANK
To those who were in the camp that the ongoing crisis will handcuff from rising rates else markets would crash, the news is a shock. To all those who read our commentary it is another day as usual. FED does not blink. Does not deviate its path. The big difference is they don't want to sound hawkish but remain as one. They want to assure any crisis that impacts the overall economy those deposits will be protected. A simple admission SVB case was on that is potential to impact, a reference to some members discussing on its potential to tighter monetary conditions. Some calculations consider that as big as 50 bps hike. Always remember, the first crisis gets biggest cake, the second one, even if it is larger than the previous one, markets adjust, and nothing comes. So, the statement not all the deposits would be protected tilts the balance. Meanwhile the lone place where markets roared is the Gameshop whose share at one point was up 45%. Coming to our Nifty, gap up open, ability to close near the high, large lower wick goes o bulls. Close below 39700-800 needed to get bearish, else there is small chance towards 40400. Being expiry day, it may turnout boring and burnout day. Prefer to step aside.