NIFTY
It is the story of the retail, recall the famous statement of FM, I don't worry on FII leaving, I have retail to support.
Since Covid times, the engagement of the trader in the guise of investor or investor in the guise of trader has multiplied. The sad part is the holding period has shrunk. No one knows what is right or wrong. In hindsight all looks rosy.
Memory recall in Early 2000, when Infosys fell the volume was pathetic, one of the largest stocks to fall, with buyers that one can count on fingers. This January turning out to take second victim, HDFC after the Polycab. 2023 Jan belonged to the Adani Group. Reasons vary, Reactions same.
From get quick 2 X in two weeks, House on Fire in a day is the story to absorb, irrespective of what kind of the material that house is made off. Remember, if the story is so convincing look for the lies, if the story is not so convincing or looks not to one's liking, look for the truth. That truth only the Smart Investor knows, no wonder the delivery volumes are huge.
Back to story of Retail, the US retail sales post stronger numbers, the probability of FED cut in March moves down to 50%. Looks we are quickly rolling over the expectation out of the Quarter 1. The research reports are in public domain so no one can retract any more.
The abandoned baby formation is classic two gaps that separate the price action of the day in the middle. This graph shows we have large Green Candle, then the gap, prints star, come the next one inverted hammer with huge gap close near the low. Completes the abandoned baby.
Picture changes from buy on dips to sell on rallies, not sure how long, not sure how much negative is left to absorb. That will come to know as time unfolds. For now, the diagnostic (aka the Graphs) suggests all is not well.
Dollar rally holds the steam, yields eke out their life above 4% in fact longer duration is still higher. There is U turn everywhere. Everyone "Trumps" like a Jamie "Diamon"
A direct collapse below 21450 is not ruled out, that can trigger much deeper move towards the 20900. A correction that is denied, results in Vomiting. A clear order of Nature.
Sensible range would remain 21450-21700 in favour of bears, an unwinding of excess longs can tank you towards the High 20 K. For now, sell rallies 21700 stops 21830 to lighten the longs. One has to be brave to get long, even if long, get quick remains the trick!
NIFTYBANK
It is easy to ink a story, then endure as an actor (be it trader or investor).
Red pill dispenser, a case of choice between remaining in a state of blissful ignorance (blue) or accepting a painful reality (red).
Hopes don't build a home, when trust is at stake. The darling of the banking, which "Excel"led quite a century plus, remains the hurt burn of the market. More so when it carries the weight of the market. There are no winners, all those who ought to carry the bag will undergo the pain. The weak leave or the smartest leave early. The hope of long-term story remains a mystic oversell to the investors. Passive is a fad, active is in!
Even to write, just buy, one has to gather courage is the extent of the deep cuts that one has seen, thankfully, the readers and followers have no such issues. The continuation of HnS turns out to be a reversal and meets its first target in a day. The maximum it can reach is 44500.
Does this remain as one off, or will it turn into much bigger and questionable moves one, remains to be seen. Lot at stake as of now. Ideally a dead cat bounce is what one ventures the thought. Markets are supreme.
45700 is one decent support, ideally that should remain as short-term zone of demand, while 46600 remains as the zone of supply. Bulls need quick move past 47200 if they have to make any come back, that looks fairly unlikely.
Near term zone 45500-46500, shocking dive can hold around the 44600-44800 area.