NIFTY
Expected gap down did not materialise instead the gap up, if we adjust that piece to the puzzle market held in good stead and the close turns out to be in favour of the bears.
After the gravestone doji, we have body bearish engulfing gravestone. Bearish but needs some more conform for larger degree.
FEB in recent times is prone for Volatility after the Jan drubbing, it further spikes. While #Polycab is forgotten so also #ZEE, #HDFCBANK and #PAYTM still rings.
India Vix rises, this did unfold last year also, the recency bias plays big part in the market dynamics. Despite the fact that INDIA VIX is not a tradable one, this gives some insights to the underlying volatility for those who are not watching the market by the minute.
China Shivers, US gets sneeze (don't go by the Index, the breadth is very negative there)
Stability in China might happen, but the aftershocks will remain to be felt.
US Yields continue to hit higher, (they are in fact in for much higher break), US dollar asserts its might. #DXY. Our own #USDINR continues to do the round tripping 83.
For the day, cues have no relevance, the chemical sector continues to hit the bottom, consumption remains under hammer, #metals, #energy and #psu doing the honours.
Larger range is 21630-21930 within that we have 21680-21780. An hourly close below 21680 opens more losses to revist the recent low. Continue remain on the softer tone stops 21880 for move to 21200 again.
NIFTYBANK
On an ideal day, NIFTYBANK should have held to the opportunity and should have risen. The fall is a disappointment to start with.
The failure coming from Mid BB, the bearish close points some lower before any higher.
The cost of CASA deposits falling, while the banks with the advantage of CASA are some of the points markets focussing. One can debate the internals of how CASA can be manipulated while the final cost of funding remains same.
With rotation to the bears or bulls being the question that one likes to infer, there appears a slow and steady itch to take profits on various sectors.
The move from large cap banks to smaller less liquid PSU BANK space is notable one. It is double edged sword though.
Rising US rates, Dollar are not any EM friendly moves, while the Election related event risk will slowly get factored as we navigate further. Looks lower range than any time hitting ATH.
Range remains 45400-46200, while one intra-day move towards 45200 not ruled out. Noth much to read in the #HDFBANK approval to buy #INDUSINDBANK.
Prefer to stay in this range.