NIFTY
The commonsense demands to carry an umbrella; when it is rainy season; clouds are thick and there is a weather warning.
We did warn here and other places, the excess; don't want to use the word froth, that is sure to bring corrective moves.
Look at some of the spaces that have wilted near 33% from the highs, to reach that you need 50% up move. Ask anyone, if that is possible in the next couple of months, the resounding answer is no.
Correction is natural and embedded in the energy of the universe and they are no different when it comes to financial markets. If they don't occur, it leads to vomits just like when one has digestion issues.
It is always what next than what now, that curiosity building in a bull markets, but when one is over leveraged and directionally opposite it turns out why me?
In any stage of the market, ask the seasoned professional, keeping it simple is the best approach than marry too many complex narratives. In the end, it is just one price that drives everyone.
Not much on the data, NewZealand Inflation falls, currency wilts. US inflation is one to watch. VIX everywhere is rising. US Dollar remains stronger, yields elevated, US markets profit taking ensures.
Erosion of the Mid Bollinger Band clearly shows we are on to the lower Bollinger Band, stops yesterday high kind. The PIP graph is bi-weekly clearly showing evening star at the Mid Bollinger. Today action seals; if any hopes of up move.
The stale longs that are left uncovered, still to go, the hopefuls have to exit at a lower level, while the smart ones lighten on the rally.
For the shorts remain while below the 21830, a direct move below 21530 warns deeper move towards the 21000.
NIFTYBANK
The fall in Nifty bank was not to our expectation, the broader market takes the load, more so the PSU pack.
Stronger Industrial Growth, stronger than expected inflation, path is optimistically unclear.
While domestic growth is resilient, it is the Global Canvass that can print certain doubts in the darts that one wishes to through.
The US Dollar, the Yields are not giving any respite, while the short-term broader markets to take the route than the short-term biases.
Clearly NIFTYBANK is near the important support around the 44200-44400 area, one would expect a base.
Yesterday action, puts the spokes on it, the question is will we go down first before up or we will form a time-based basing than a sharp rise.
The heavy weight HDFC moves further down, KOTAK is printing some bearish tones, SBI held it's nerves to comment on the big names. AXIS and ICICI follows the wind than rule.
Simply put, reluctant to sell below 44300 and reluctant to buy above 45200 that defines the range, now choose the tools to get that range play.