NIFTY:
In the midst of all drama, Oracle Financial Services post 28% rise in a single day.
Three things were all over, a. Oracle one day performance, b. Markets meme about Ram Temple c. Persist with HDFC in the long term it is the best place to be.
One word to sum, prayers or persistence. 10,000 attempts or 10,000 iterations.
Whether it is prayer or punt, focus is important, else the effect, impact or the results are not going to match one's expectations.
Markets dive, no amount of information was sufficient to reverse. Interestingly large lower wicks in many places suggests, buyers snatching them handsomely. The internals don't suggest any damage, be it 52 weeks low or high, one month low or high. So, no bigger damage seen, except that a caution is very much warranted one.
The moves have shaken the novice traders more than the average investor. Lots lessons, mens and boys getting separated.
US jobs data comes stronger, one of the best in 50 Years, the rate cut hopes fade and decibels still ring in the year, but they are the background noise than the mainline theme.
Dollar up, yields up, US stocks up...........Stronger economy should reflect stronger financial assets? or it is a trap?
One thing is confirmed, this week candle is a three-line engulfing candle in the weekly. Thus suggest, the top should be safe, the question is will it be a flat move going forward or a further move down, prefer a flat before the next move.
The pip graph is daily, after the Tweezler top and abandoned baby patter, the opening cues looking green attempts to 21600+ are in order, an opportunity to sell or a missed opportunity to buy. While we stay below 21730-780 it is an opportunity to sell. Any rally 21600-700 sell negates daily close above 21830 for move towards the recent low or towards 21200.
NIFTYBANK
FED Rate cut hopes move down to 50%, an equal chance of 50/50, a clear coin toss!
Welcome to the world of financial forecasting.
Alan Greenspan famously remarked, "Currency Forecasting is a Coin Toss"
The world predicted war, but who in the world predicted war between Pakistan and Iran.
Proxies galore, proxies are the way to look for the leaders' footsteps. Whether it is WallStreet, Dalal street or the WEF.
RBI bulletin comments on the food inflation, worth to pick some thoughts. Jefferies comments that the Government's fiscal expenditure will be met with disappointment. Not from the Vote on account but post the election.
The background of war on different scales, war of two years, war of one year, war in the neighbourhood, war in the pipeline continues. The geo-politics rule.
One looks at the traffic in Global Trade routes, that is quite scarry. Scarry as the supply shocks can spike the prices and then a sudden move back to the inflation canvass for higher and longer.
Back to our markets, fell the maximum, near the support ideally, should be a green day to start.
Price near the demand line, larger bearish candle in the weekly, some corrective move to rise. However 46900 looks formidable, previous support acts as resistance.
So, pick the side is important that suits style and risk reward. Wait for the move closer to 46300-46600 sell stops 47200. Keep the size manageable. Else use other instruments of lesser Risk and Lesser Reward.