NIFTY
Bears did not waste their time; they are ticking every box that comes on their way.
The bloodbath in small and mid-caps continue, no headlines made, but the victim is sure to be the liquidity.
What is laughable is the excuse of Japan Interest rates as the cause for our Market fall, they will print anything as long as you are willing to read. It is not the markets that fell, but the story writers who hit new low.
On the long term, the fall is surely a healthy sign, removes any large moves in panic mode, prepares for a show higher later. Or is it that the POLL is not one way and thus the markets are re-positioning who knows.
Tax collections higher, will get no traction for the markets. BOJ ends its 17-year policy. Have seen this too in my lifetime kind of moment. Yen falls, Dollar Gallops, Equity in Europe and US remain robust. Japan Holiday today.
Australia keeps rates unchanged, Europe ZEW sentiment tad better, Canada inflation softer.
UK inflation and PPI report later in the day. Important to watch is FOMC, the Economic Projections and more importantly the press conference.
From the Technical point of view, the price action yesterday closed near important support, the Jan open and end. This is around 21780. Ideally this should hold for a dead cat bounce. Another way of looking at this is adjustment ahead of FOMC. FII and DII numbers are positive, while the sentiment remains on the edge.
For the day focus on 21780-21930 should work.
NIFTYBANK
BOJ ends 17 Year of Zero interest rate policy. Finally, that is end of an era. The collective wisdom of the Central Bank's clearly points towards no longer easy money.
More interestingly today FOMC will throw light on what the thinking is, there are economic projections and then there is Press Conference.
Elevated commodity prices, Crude Oil, Service driven inflation are still the points of concern on the inflation path. FED is not going to relent too soon. The new piece on their table is the Energy prices.
Economic data has been mixed, and individual data has lost its relevance, while the JOB report remains the puzzle to decipher.
Not much of data from our markets, the focus remains on the cues overseas and the flows here.
In terms of fall we hit near 8 days of fall. Hence the De-Mark methodology demands a rise, also the attached 45 Min graph suggests a base near term. The break of the downward trendline may not end the down move, ideally it should hit the UBB and then the fall and then the recapture of the UBB that is the process.
No to shorts above the recent low of 46000 range, while 46700 attracts. Nimble longs are better than NUMB shorts.