Wishing all my followers and readers, happy new year, that should dawn more wisdom, more persistence on Risk Management, willing to adopt (greater than willingness to learn), in the end a blissful life.
It was not a great start for equity markets for 2024, we were the lone one's that kept the market open on 1st January 2024.
For the bears smaller bodies, tweezler top in some frames, over bought conditions, reasonable upper wick are the take aways in addition to slower momentum.
For the bulls, ability to hold 21500 (this is now the break level for more losses on daily close basis). Considering the recent top around 21834 and now at 21710 that is nothing but bulls in full control.
So far, this morning, it is total calm and absolutely no clues from the overseas. Last couple of days dollar rallied, equity gave some gains, yields rallied. Is this the new norm or all the above are reversals? This week inflation data likely to throw some light. Remember markets look far ahead than now!
Broadly results season, geopolitics should be the drivers than anything else. Interesting to see, positive results sell, negative results buy syndrome continues this season also.
SEBI consideration banning naked shorts (FII nil), Retail to inform before, through the SLBS mechanism, will aid the market discovery more than anything else. It is nothing but formalising or extending the market players and thus adding depth. No market mover news at this stage.
For the day hourly close below 21640 brings more losses while hourly close above 21760 eyes new high. Bigger frames 21300-22000 dictate.
BANKNIFTY
For nature lovers' sea is an inspiration for generation. Close to the nature, shores, waves and then the bank! It is water that surrounds the land, it is the waves that surrounds the thoughts.
Ther is no preference to the Word M or the World L. The waves count in the end. Don't read too much more than this!
For the bulls, Article 370 was a game changer and thus the Jammu and Kashmir Bank pleasantly surprised the Bulls. Will this extrapolation logic however big or small aid the Canara Bank, with largest number of banks there. Farfetched? in bull markets reasons and logics have no place.
The eternal move to 50K on bank nifty is what we fancy, that is the Lakshmana Rekha that is more enticing and rewarding for now.
The head and shoulder if you were hoping on might turn as a false one and result in minor inv head and shoulder taking closer to 49K. Out of the 18 Industries 15 are doing great, thus comes the broader strokes in favour of upmove.
There is slight deviation between bank nifty and nifty and that might get solved from other two heavy weights or both move in positive direction.
For the day 47880 should hold for move towards the 48400 as reasonable targets.