NIFTY:
Unstoppable is the word the comes to the mind for couple of reasons.
1. Our PM speech about India unstoppable for next 1000 years. A great rotation that is unfolding the universe, no question who ever that be in power, India, that is Bharat clear winner.
2. Rahul Gandhi "Unstoppable" Yatra, being the only opposition if any.
3. Third and more relevant is the Runaway Railway Stocks.
It reminds me of one thing if you are asleep in your journey and forget to get down at your destination, you will have to pay to return to your journey, it cost time as well as money. That is the story in some of the railway stocks, a caution is very much in order.
Overseas cues are mixed, the US lead by few is marching forward. Asia yesterday red and today green, so markets will pick the Green than Red.
BOJ, ECB FOMC this month, truncated week. Challenge to read the market moves of the Saturday where the liquidity and inclination both are under question. However, we need to negotiate what is on table than what is not.
Purely from the TA point of view, all that starts as cues, is under test when it comes to our markets. Today is the bigger test than many of the previous. Days. 1. The gap of 17 Jan is not filled in three days (if we factor the Saturday session also). The close is near the vital 21580.
The internal were negative on Saturday. But a casual look so far suggests 50/50, many indexes showing unwillingness to stay higher. Today PSU index is under watch. Any negative close if any of more than 1% down would warn corrective moves.
For the day Nifty sell rallies once again 21650-680 stops 21830 (hedge with options). If and in any case, we don't see 21650 and we break 21540 on 30 min frame sell the break strict stops 21630 (size to be managed).
NIFTYBANK
The pain from HDFC is yet to get over, Indus Ind bank punches another one. We got ICICI bank, that should lift the boats and in cheer. The new leader potentially replacing the HDFC for some time to come.
On the Interest rates the global outlook continues to be on of revision of larger cut to smaller cuts. Surely it is going to fade way. When we look one year from now, we will continue to debate similar ones.
Jefferies comments on EM Sovereign Risk markets showed some impact yesterday in Asia, but this morning they are green. China bounces from multi year low. In any case it is not a trend indicator.
The cost of funds and the subsequent squeeze in margins remains the story in most of the spaces, when it comes to NBFC it is risk norms that is impacting them. You will continue to witness divergent moves; PSU pack is better placed than Private save the likes of ICICI to some extent AXIS.
Help by the stronger support, despite Saturday moves, should we read or not situation. We print Harami Hammer. Suffice to say 45800-46800 bias to the buy side in selective places.