NIFTY
Cheers to the start, Delight in the Middle and delusion in the end.
Cheers as the markets open gap up, churn rotate and move and kept the tone circling around the 22 K, delight in the middle as Swiss Central Bank surprisingly cut rates. Dax initially bounced and then fell. Delusion in the end, the inability to have much stronger move is still in Question. Everything looked like dead cat bounce coming near the strong support. Today is vital.
Contrary to initial reactions, USD gallop, moves back above 233 DMA, while Euro still holding into the same. One has to give way to other to get more traction in the direction.
Gold lost some sheen, while US equity continue to march head. US PMI producer puts a strong number. Slow and steady markets call for three rate cuts may end up forward looking, with verbal tone than actions. Hope moves to End of Q1. That is huge set back to those doves who have called as recently as five months back 7 cuts.
The question that is not financial but pure political developments will they have any bearing on the markets? The simple answer is markets pull excuses from every source to move. We may flag and label them as that as the reason, but no one knows the real trigger.
In terms of today, the cues are negative, the closing level to watch is 21900 for the bulls to have some hope and for the bears to restart if we close below. On the higher side 22230 on close basis. Dice is tad in favour of bears than bulls.
A weekly close below 21900, brings focus on this week's low in the next week. 0.382% of the rise from Nov stands at 21382 and bulls stare at that level.
NIFTYBANK
There is drama on inflation, it looks all over the world. Now it is not.
It always existed in our daily life, but we are told it is moving down.
The best example is Japan moving out of zero interest rate after 17 years, while Swiss rate cut can be sign of demand descent.
Today the inflation from Japan is higher, no longer China in deflation, Taiwan rises the rates. There is extrapolation hope that we may cut. If we stay put that in itself is a cut.
Overseas limit of investment limit is closer and stopped, inverse investment is stronger than FII investment here?
US continues to print decent economic number, UK holds the rates, but Europe looks divergent. In sum, it is no longer cut and paste story. Equity though looks to mimic the moves to start with.
For us, dynamics are different. From technical point of view close just about near 46700 is in no man's land. Today close is interest to watch. From the weekly frame it looks better than the NIFTY.
The nine days of fall finally is arrested. Yesterday the gap up prints some to bull and some to bears. Close above 34 DMA is positive, end of nine day down move. A Gap up to start with. Higher wicks, open and close negligible. Bigger frames hold 45800-47300 range.