Market sentiment reflects a growing sense of widespread geopolitical tension with oil prices surging on potential threat of supply disruption. Besides Kashkari's "no rate cuts in 2024" stance, just think in case the double-digit pay growth for job changers in ADP is even remotely trend accurate & gets reflected in Average Hourly Earnings today particularly with headline at 200k, doves would have to roll over their rate cut bets into CY 2025.
Eclipse on the rate Cuts!
Eclipse on the rate Cuts!
Eclipse on the rate Cuts!
Market sentiment reflects a growing sense of widespread geopolitical tension with oil prices surging on potential threat of supply disruption. Besides Kashkari's "no rate cuts in 2024" stance, just think in case the double-digit pay growth for job changers in ADP is even remotely trend accurate & gets reflected in Average Hourly Earnings today particularly with headline at 200k, doves would have to roll over their rate cut bets into CY 2025.